Is the market expecting a serious fall?

First, it's worth understanding what a recession is. Some of you may remember me talking about cycles in the economy. A recession follows a peak, followed by a trough and, accordingly, the beginning of a new growth trend.

A recession is accompanied and defined by a slowdown in economic growth or its complete absence (essentially GDP), rising prices (inflation), rising unemployment (we will see this after several rate increases) and some other factors.

If we look at the situation in the West, we will understand that they either:

1) very close to entering a recession

2) have already entered it

But many of us don’t care about these big words; one thing is important – to understand what will happen to the companies’ shares.

Roughly speaking, the US economy consists of these very companies in which we invest money, but this does not mean at all that we will not see growth in the next few years.

• Most likely, in our case there will be a slowdown in economic growth, rather than its complete absence, which is already noticeable now, and we will not see companies growing by 50-60% per year; everything will return to the average standard growth of 15-20% per year.

•Most likely there will be more than one fairly large drain during the period of rising rates and tightening monetary policy, but with smart investments, you will also receive high profits.

The main goal of the US at the moment is to reduce inflation without causing much harm to the economy (which is not possible at the moment)

Conclusion - recession is a time of opportunities, not panic and dumping, remember this. Growth is inevitable, but not as fast as in the period of 20-22.

The company fell into the abyss by 63% What to do next?

Let's figure out what happened - for the first time in many years, Netflix failed to grow its user base, but instead announced an outflow of 200,000 subscriptions in the last quarter, with a potential outflow of around 2,000,000 subscriptions in the next quarter.

Everyone around took this news as something incredibly scary, because something like this hadn’t happened for a long time and it meant that the end of streaming was incredibly close.

$NFLX has a base of 220+ million users, churn of 200 thousand = 0.1% (10% of one percent), churn of 2,000,000 people = 1%, but the company is already falling by 25% per day and 63% in half a year, seriously?)

That is, an outflow of 2.2 million people in half a year = the collapse of the company. But when in September of this year the company received +4.3 million new users, no one was happy, because this is not a minus)

My verdict - I will average Netflix without hesitation for a couple of days, as they can "panic" and sell it a little lower. My position was about $1.5k, will become ~$2.5k

This company only needs one successful series to grow its user base by several million.

Tesla is set to report its first-quarter 2022 earnings this week, which will also reveal how much bitcoin it holds. The electric carmaker decided to accept bitcoin in March last year, but backed off two months later .

As a reminder, the company had 43,200 bitcoins at the end of 2021, making it one of the largest corporate bitcoin holders. As bitcoin fell in price in the first quarter of 2022, some individual investors rushed to accumulate the cryptocurrency. The largest corporate bitcoin holder, analytics firm MicroStrategy, also added bitcoins to its balance sheet during the market downturn.

When will we see the long-awaited turnaround!?

Every few months I sit down to analyze a given company and see what's new.

•At the moment, the main driving factor for quotes will be the start of commercial launches of their clients into space. This is not new and everyone knows it. They will probably start this year and for all of us there is only one way out - to wait patiently until the profit slowly but surely moves in our direction.

•But today I came across an interesting moment. Having examined the current price consolidation and lateral movement, I noticed that volumes are growing and doing so quite quickly (TF 1 day)

I have highlighted them with red ovals on the graph, you can take a look.

This is called convergence and why it is interesting - the company has become more interesting against the backdrop of stagnant quotes. According to the laws and rules of convergence, it causes a further surge in volatility towards growth.

Naturally, this is only a positive factor, but it can also be important in the overall negative picture.

We are waiting for the main flights, then we will make a profit.

​These companies will show growth of 100% in the near future.

First - $UPWK

•The company has an interesting business, and most importantly, the growth of its revenue does not correlate with the growth of quotes and now we have an obvious undervaluation.

•They spend more than 60% of their money on R&D and sales and marketing, which is a very important point, because we only need those companies that strive for development.

The second one is $FTCH

•A very popular service used by millions of people around the world.

•The company is also developing, and its quotes do not correlate with revenue growth, which is a positive factor.

•Very good financial multiples, looks good in terms of fundamentals.

If you take these companies, I do not recommend doing this for more than 1% of the deposit, and you need to leave some for the possibility of a second purchase.

The companies are undervalued, but the market is very uncertain, so it's not worth taking too many risks.

​What a takeoff! 61% of income in a month

It's time to lock in your position!

I have mentioned the company $TWTR several times.

I wrote to you about the purchase zones on January 18. Everyone had the opportunity to enter the deal three times at a price of $32.

Twitter is now worth $50 and is approaching its significant resistance at $55.

Those who held the company for speculation - it is better to close 80% of the volume and hold the rest with a stop at +30%

Soared 55% in 3 days! +50k profit

We begin to fix the position.

We are talking about $OZON , which we bought on March 29 together with 4 other Russian companies.

I am writing only about him, because the others have a profit of 10% to 30%, which is not interesting yet.

Personally, I hold on and just put a stop, since the investment is long-term, but I would advise many of you to fix 50% of the volume and put a stop on the remainder at +20%

Should I keep it? What are the goals?

As I said earlier - the first target of $1,000, which we stormed yesterday.

It is worth fixing 50% of the position volume and leaving the stop in plus for the rest and holding until $1,200

The company has potential and after many years, $TSLA for $2,000 will only be a dream.

What if the rocket doesn't take off?

+28.5% in a couple of days, perfect level development!

$SNAP showed amazing results back in early February. But only after the report did it give us a good and quick profit.

I would recommend traders to close their positions or set stops.

•Just a few days ago, the company again reached its level from which we are building our position - $28 per share, and after several hours of consolidation, it rapidly went up.

•For those who took it, I recommend closing 50% of the position and placing a stop of 15% profit on the remaining half.

​This company has a potential of 50% to 100% profit in the near future.

For a long time I ignored $SHOP stock because I thought the company was overvalued, but due to recent events its quotes fell from $1,800 to $600 and now it has moved into the undervalued group.

•Very attractive and growing business.

•Clear underestimation in terms of growth in quotations and revenue growth.

•Clear upward trend in income.

•Low debt burden and excellent profitability.

I like the company, the first long-term target is $1,200, the medium-term target is $900. After that, we will look at the state of the economic background.

China has flown into space. Is this the beginning of an upward trend or another hoax?

Today we will analyze one of the most significant assets of China - $BABA

•I have been buying this company for a long time, despite various difficulties, which are mainly related to political issues, and not at all fundamental ones for the company itself.

Yesterday, the Chinese government announced it would help local companies, sparking the strongest wave of positivity and growth in the country's market.

•But will this be a complete reversal and change of trend?

•We have observed similar movements before, but then they all merged into a pipe

••The first significant resistance that the company will have to pass is the level of ~$120-125

••The second main resistance, the breakthrough of which will already mean the beginning of an upward trend ~ $170

•At the moment we are seeing positive and strong absorption of candles on the weekly TF, but it is too early to rejoice.

Chinese companies will be among the fastest growing in the near future.

Will there be a total drain of indices?

The Fed has reached the point where they must raise the key rate, which directly affects economic development, and the higher it is, the slower the “progress”.

It's not that simple. The choice varies between raising by 0.25%, 0.5% and 0.75%

Each of the options has its own consequences:

• a 0.25% increase would confirm the Fed's inability to see the real problems ahead. Such an increase would not bring the desired result and most likely a more significant increase would take place at the next meeting. But on the other hand, it would be less of a shock to the economy.

• a 0.5% rise would mean the Fed admitting a serious problem in the form of inflation and a desire to eradicate it as soon as possible and return it to its native land. The market is pricing in a 0.5% rise and this will not be a shock. In my opinion, this is the best option.

• a rise of 0.75% would mean that the Fed had been on some other planet for the entire previous year and had not paid attention to serious problems. Having discovered them, they decide to urgently correct the situation, ignoring the stock market, which would go to hell with such a rise.

It can show an incredible rise of 100-200% in the near future.

$TWOU has been in a downtrend for over a year now, but there is a high probability of growth in the future.

•development is underway and revenue is growing at a rapid pace (there is no profit, I will explain why below)

•is at the levels of 2014, when the same revenue was 10 times lower.

•strong oversold zone by RSI on weekly TF

•the beginning of $2 million in insider purchases (for this company they are rare and happen just before a trend reversal)

•there is no profit due to the fact that 50% of revenue goes to marketing and sales for the development of the company, another 20% goes to the development of technologies and content development.

Verdict - the company has great potential for growth, but against the backdrop of rising interest rates and economic uncertainty, such weak companies may be the first to be hit. If you take it, then in two parts and no more than 1% of the deposit in total. Remember the main thing - the investment is medium-term!

I start buying these companies for several thousand dollars, their potential is hundreds of percent.

Started with $BA , $CNK , $DAL

I won't ignore $CCL either, but a little later, since I personally already have a rather large position on it.

Note that the market is not growing much, they bought up a little and then froze, but air and cruises are being bought up just like that

This does not mean at all that they will now fly up without any rollbacks and give each of us hundreds of percent in a couple of days, it only means that “they are being noticed” more and more, understanding the prospects and the groundlessness of the recent drain

This is not an investment recommendation.

When can we expect such a take-off?

We are talking about $CCL and $BA

•Due to recent events and subsequent restrictions, companies from the aviation and cruise sectors have dropped by about 15-20% and are once again attractive to investors.

Why now?

•No conflict will last forever. It is likely that these restrictions will complicate the work of Boeing a little, but not that much, and Carnival even more so.

•right now covid-19 measures are being relaxed all over the world and it seems to have been forgotten. In Europe, wearing masks on the streets is already being cancelled, borders are being opened and the situation is generally improving.

But the deterrent is the sanctions policy, which only hits companies at the moment, but not in the future.

Target for $CCL ~ $40, target for $BA ~ $350. Term up to 2 years.

The situation is serious. Is it possible to avoid it?

This is just one of the factors that can lead to such consequences, but it should not be underestimated.

As a result of the escalation of the well-known conflict and, as a continuation, sanctions, prices for raw materials jumped to incredibly high levels and oil today at its peak cost $130 per barrel.

Remember 2008, the values we are now approaching. Oil was growing and growing until one fine day everything went down like a stone.

Now the situation is even more serious. Inflation in the US is at an incredible 7.5%, and the rise in the price of oil is only accelerating it.

What will the Fed do but tighten its policy even more? Raise the key rate faster and harder to prevent inflation from climbing even higher.

But such an approach will cause a strong slowdown in the economy with all the consequences that entails.

It is possible to save the situation while it is not too late, but it is unclear at the moment whether anyone will take a step forward. One thing is certain - the higher the oil price, the greater the risk.

The company has soared 25% in 3 trading days. Where to next?

At the moment, the best option would be to set a stop in plus and continue holding the position.

The current situation, as I said earlier, is uncertain, but $TSLA reacts to it very neutrally, which is quite logical, because the company's losses will be minimal.

Overall, I expect the company to meet all of its goals. Short-term - $1,000, long-term - $3,000

This company will show hundreds of percent profits in the next few years.

Personally, I have had my eye on $U for a long time, but due to its high price I did not consider buying it.

Now the quotes are at interesting levels and the company is becoming very attractive.

It is engaged in providing its systems for creating various 2D and 3D content, as well as augmented virtual reality.

In simple terms - a game engine and work with the metaverse.

•has weight in the industry and is really in demand

•high growth potential due to the development of the digital world

• excellent dynamics of reports and their correlation with quotes

•very high spending on research and development + sales and marketing, which indicates the company’s targeted development.

It is worth entering the position in two parts: 1) at current prices 2) buy additional $65-70

In the long term the target is ~$400. In the short term $140.